Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

Author
Garner, Gregory G · Keller, Klaus
Year 2017
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Abstract

Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with deeply uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods have provided tremendous insight into this decision problem, but are often silent on tradeoffs as well as the effects of tail-area events and of potential future learning. Here we reformulate a simple sea-level rise adaptation model to address these concerns. We show that Direct Policy Search yields improved solution quality, with respect to Pareto-dominance in the objectives, over the traditional approach under uncertain sea-level rise projections and storm surge. Additionally, the new formulation produces high quality solutions with less computational demands than the traditional approach. Our results illustrate the utility of multi-objective adaptive formulations for the example of coastal adaptation and point to wider-ranging application in climate change adaptation decision problems.

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Details

Title
Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge
Author
Garner, Gregory G · Keller, Klaus
Year
2017
Type
Research Article
Language
eng
Comment
25 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables. Under review at Environmental Modelling and Software (14 July 2017). Abstract submitted to AGU 2017 Fall Meeting session PA029 (Session ID: 27225; Abstract ID: 286269)
History
2017-08-03 00:00:00
Categories
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
This is Version 1 of this record. We added this version on August 5, 2017. This version is based on an original data import from arXiv.org e-Print archive.